On Jul 15 a strong bearish synergy bar closed on the daily chart for the kiwi (NZDUSD). The fundamentals were also in agreement (negative New Zealand economic indicators and a strong USD) so I executed a short. I set a break-even point at 127 Fibonacci extension of the previous leg down and executed my break-even Expert Advisor to watch when the price action hits that point. My take profit was set at Fibonacci extension 138 of the previous leg down since it was way past the third leg of the down trend (fourth or fifth leg already) and a danger of trend waning was at hand.
The Greek situation was definitely not going well as Tsipras & Co. were gambling with the patience of EU top dogs, etc. The Greek bailout was soon due to expire (Jun 30 2015) and there was still no agreement. I was surprised at how EURUSD was still holding up. The fundamentals were definitely in USD's favor.
In this instance, I will demonstrate a trend shifting trade. I use a customized indicator with RSI and a 21 EMA plotted. When the EMA crosses RSI from below, there is a possible bullish trend shift and vice versa: when the EMA crosses RSI from above, it's a possible bearish trend shift. I only use the cross as a confirmation, I don't blindly rely on it! Please use the Internet to familiarize yourself with RSI and the concept of moving averages (EMA in this case).
In this example I am going to discuss a loss trade. You can see that in real life not all trades end up being winners. As long as we abide to strict money and risk management and we follow sound and proven strategies, we will end up at a profit. I will not discuss money management and risk/reward here. I am assuming you are familiar with these concepts and if not, please use your favorite search engine to read and learn about them. You can never become profitable in the long run if you don't follow these rules!